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I've
learned a lot about the desktop Linux business over the last year
that we've been doing Lindows.com. I've talked with
industry experts, consumers, CEOs from many of the major software
and hardware companies and our own Insiders. Using the
knowledge I've learned from these people, I'm going to make a few
predictions about what you'll see in the desktop computer business
in the upcoming year.
1) PCs will cost $0.00
Customers will soon be provided with free
computers if they sign-up for services. With the price of computers
finally under $200, offers will start
emerging that will provide a complimentary PC when committing to
services such as Internet connectivity, cable, online banking, or
even a software service similar to our Click-N-Run Warehouse,
which provides all the basic software needed for a flat fee. This is similar
to the cell phone business which provides a free or heavily
subsidized phone, if you'll promise to stick with their service for
an extended period of time. AOL might be a likely candidate as they
watch subscriber numbers plateau. Sign up for a 2 year commitment
with AOL and receive an AOL-equipped computer. Plummeting hardware
prices are going to make different business propositions related to
PC ownership possible.
2)
Microsoft Windows XPLite
You'll see a series of design wins for
Linux powering many of the sub-$500 computers as you've seen with Walmart.com. The cost
of hardware is dropping so steeply, that manufacturers are unwilling
to pay Microsoft $100 per copy of Microsoft
Windows XP as well as deal
with their onerous auditing and accounting demands which make the
true price much higher. In the second half of 2003, Microsoft will
unveil XPL which is a stripped down version of Microsoft Windows XP
designed to be less than half the price of the current operating
system licensing. This still won't be cheap enough for the majority
of hardware manufacturers and by the end of ‘03 Linux will be firmly
entrenched in the low-end market.
Microsoft won't be happy about doing this
(and giving up their monopolistic windfall profit margins), but
because LindowsOS and others are bringing choice to the desktop
computer, they'll be forced to.
3)
Desktop Linux Adoption Will Achieve 10%
According to Netcraft, more than half of
the web servers today are running Linux. Most of the server
operators selected Linux because of its low-cost and robustness.
Those same compelling factors will propel the adoption of Linux on
the desktop in schools, in homes and in cost-conscience businesses
around the globe. Since it does take a bit more inertia to
standardize an office or household with Linux than a headless,
faceless server, the adoption will be a bit slower than we saw on
the server side, but will still see healthy growth. If you want to
see it first hand, plan to attend the Desktop Linux Summit
February 20-21st in San Diego.
4)
Return of the Windows Wars
In the 80s, there was healthy competition as
many companies offered windows based products. Microsoft's ferocious
competition and illegal tactics eventually wiped out these companies
and their window manager products. This year we'll see several of
the larger hardware companies adopt their own window managers based
on Linux which will invigorate the software business with some much
needed competition. Can you imagine a car company that didn't design
the interior of cars they manufactured?
Worse, what if all cars had identical interiors
and there was only one supplier who marked them up so that they made
more profits than all the actual car companies combined? That sounds
like a preposterous idea, but that's the PC business today. PC
builders are relegated to commodity vendors because their interiors
are all identical and Microsoft makes more profits then all the
computer companies combined. Instead of giving the lion's share of
the profits in the computing industry to Microsoft, it makes much
more sense to invest a portion of those monies into a product they
can own and use as a competitive advantage. They'll be able to not
only customize this product to their own tastes, but also generate
revenues from it through upgrades and other sales opportunities such
as software subscriptions. Today's computer builders pay massive
fees to Microsoft for the privilege of making cheap razors while
Microsoft makes all the profits by selling the razor blades.
Management of PC companies will eventually tire of selling
low-margin hardware while Microsoft reaps all the profits from
high-margin software. They'll start shipping computers with their
own operating system tailored to their customers needs and designed
to give them a healthier profit margin. The enormous strides that
Linux has made over the last few years (driver support, ease-of-use,
hardware support) has made this a practical business decision where
in the past it was a very difficult proposition.
Before "Gateway Windows," "Dell Windows," "AOL
Windows" or others can label their own operating systems with the
windows moniker without reprisal from Microsoft (as was commonplace
in the early PC era), Lindows.com will have to prevail in our lawsuit
fight so the word 'windows' will be returned to the public
domain of computing.
Special note: Thanks to all those who
responded to our requests
for pre-1983 materials using the word 'windows'. You provided us
with many very helpful materials which we plan on introducing
to the court. If you find more mentions in your personal libraries,
please, let us know!
5)
No all-in-one personal computers
Over
the past few years many pundits have put forth the notion that your
personal computer will be your telephone, game station, music
center, TV set, alongside the list of duties it already admirably
performs. At Lindows.com, we see it
differently. We don't dispute that PC architecture will power many,
if not all of those devices. But we don't believe you'll see a
consolidation of devices into one monolithic machine. Just as you
have many kitchen appliances all designed to do separate things
instead of an all-in-one toaster/blender/microwave/waffle iron, your
house will be the same.
You'll see a proliferation of inexpensive
personal computer powered devices where each one is dedicated to a
specific purpose. In fact, that's what you're already seeing. An
Xbox is actually a personal computer masquerading as a game console
(and some people are even trying to run Linux on it). Your
Tivo or ReplayTV may look like a souped-up VCR, but it's really just
a personal computer with a specialized case, remote and software.
Expect to see more personal computers appearing in your home
designed with specific purposes such as your music library, kitchen
duties, home finances, etc. Some may remember the Internet appliance
disasters a few years ago. The difference now is that the equipment
will be based on existing low-cost PC hardware and run Linux
software, which will keep the price low.
Those
are my predictions for what will be an exciting year for desktop
Linux. As a special
thank you to all our Insiders who are helping us shape the
direction of LindowsOS, we are allowing free admission to
Desktop Linux Summit. Insiders also receive a TWO-year membership
to the Lindows.com "Click-N-Run Warehouse" (a $198 value) for
$99. You'll want to hurry though, as this offer ends
with the General Release of LindowsOS later this
year.
As
always, thanks for your support.
Michael
Robertson The Michael's Minute Meter
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